Industry is too optimistic about 5G, there is no big but not down

Recently, Qualcomm announced in advance a batch of 19 smartphone manufacturers and 18 operators that will adopt the Xiaolong X50 5G NR in 2019, including Xiaomi, OPPO, vivo, Nokia, Sony, LG, China's three major operators, etc. . According to relevant media reports, Huawei is expected to launch its own 5G commercial chip Balong 5G01 mobile phone in the middle of 2019.

"Simply speaking, 5G is a wide bandwidth. Mobile Internet traffic belongs to wireless, broadband is wired, broadband widening means that the cable is widened and fast." A mobile Beijing branch employee to Blue Whale TMT The reporter said.

"5G has many applications in special scenarios. For example, 4K and 8K HD movies have high requirements for high-bandwidth. 4G networks are difficult to support. In the future, 5G will mainly implement high-density users in the same scene, high-speed Internet access, and high-speed video watching." Communication expert Fu Liang told the Blue Whale TMT reporter. “High-bandwidth and high-density Internet access” explained with one employee of China Mobile Shandong Branch that “the impact of 5G on wired and wireless networks is mainly clouded”.

Industry is overly optimistic about 5G

According to the operator's relevant publicity materials, the 5G speed will be faster. Compared with the 4G main pursuit rate, 5G pays more attention to the three key performance indicators: faster experience rate, higher connection density and lower air interface latency. In the enhancement of mobile broadband scenarios, such as VR/AR, cloud-based robots; low-power wide coverage scenarios, such as massive IoT, low-latency, high-reliability scenarios, such as car networking, auto-driving, etc., need cross-industry integration Ecology.

In fact, in terms of 5G application scenarios, although some manufacturers have proposed the concept of 8K, related products have been launched in September last year.

However, the current 4K has not completely landed, and the relevant market is extremely immature. The lack of 4K content resources, weak network support capabilities and lack of good top-level planning and design directly limit the development of 4K and even 8K video industry. Hype and gimmicks are greater than the actual user experience.

Automated driving is a complex frontier. The Washington Post has promoted that the technology can effectively solve the vicious incident caused by human "road anger" in the future. Intel's strategic research calls it one of the important drivers for increasing idle passengers and improving economic efficiency.

In fact, "reality is very skinny", visual AI technology, advanced algorithms, deep learning systems are the key to affect the ability of automatic driving, high-reliability, low-latency, wide-coverage network is only one of them. AI does not currently have the common sense resolving power of a four-year-old child. From the death of Tesla to the recent failure of the Mercedes-Benz cruise control mode, the 5G application scenario needs to be supported by a powerful “ecosphere” from policy to regulation.

In addition, the 5G signal coverage problem also directly affects the 5G experience. An equipment manufacturer employee told reporters that "the high-frequency transmission loss is large, the 5G frequency band is high, and the coverage distance is much smaller, so it will not cover too much within a few years." Therefore, it is better to operate the 5G network signal. Merchants will face pressure from the construction of base stations. At present, the coverage of 4G signals is a problem, and 4G signals are still not covered in remote areas. 5G network signal coverage is more difficult and has a long way to go.

"Consistent with the national plan and the equipment manufacturer's point of view, the outside world is overestimating the 5G business process. It may not be possible to have a certain commercial use in the second half of 2019. It may still belong to the experimental stage before." Communication expert Fu Liang Say.

Oligarchic pattern or continue

Comparing the three major operators' financial reports for the first quarter of 2018, China Mobile's operating income was 185.5 billion yuan, slightly higher than the sum of China Unicom and China Telecom (the total of 74.935 billion and 96.613 billion yuan totaled 1,715.48 billion yuan). The number of China Mobile customers is 8.9 billion, and the number of 4G users is 672 million. It is far higher than the sum of China Unicom and Telecom (users Unicom 294 million and telecom 265 million total 559 million, 4G users) Unicom 194 million and telecom 200 million total 394 million).

The increase in mobile ARPU is higher than that of China Unicom and Telecom. Unicom and Telecom's single quarter growth rate is 8.59%, 5.6% higher than mobile's 0.8%. China Unicom and Telecom's future business growth space is large. Now, Unicom is looking for new opportunities with the relatively mature 3G and 4G technologies of WCDMA and FDD.

Unicom lags behind the transition of 3G and 4G, and the mobile investment plan for 4G is the earliest. After the personnel adjustments of the three major operators in August 2015, China Unicom fully cut into the 4G construction plan. Despite the fact that the strength of China Unicom is not much different in the 3G era, telecommunications has been ahead of China Unicom for about three quarters in 4G planning, which has a slight advantage over Unicom.

Unicom and Telecom are in the 4G standard FDD-LTE and TD-LTE hybrid networking, which has obvious advantages in terms of low cost and high speed compared to mobile TD-LTE. However, the mobile user base is large and user consumption has inertia. Inter-network calls require higher costs, resulting in users being more inclined to move. In addition, the large number of base stations and signal coverage better than Unicom are also an important factor in maintaining the "oligarch" status of mobile.

In the transition period of 4G to 5G, compare the investment of the three operators in 5G. China Mobile's attention and investment are ahead of Unicom and Telecom.

Recently, Mobile plans to launch 5G scale trials in five cities including Hangzhou, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Suzhou and Wuhan, deploying more than 100 5G base stations in each city; deploying small-scale 5G applications in 12 cities including Beijing, Tianjin, Shenzhen and Chongqing. demonstration. According to the latest announced plan, China Mobile will deploy more than 10,000 5G base stations by 2020.

China Telecom's traditional research institutes, such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou Research Institutes, have been researching advanced fixed-line network technologies and have done a lot of work on 5G tracking.

China Unicom has a lot of actions in 5G. Once it really falls back to the operational level, from the spread to the layout, it ranks the last among the three major operators, and is the operator with the least 5G investment so far.

"5G licenses and frequency bands will become a tool for balancing the relationship between the three major operators. There will be a certain degree of tilt, but how much can be tilted. Will it change the pattern? It is still unknown. Can the leading position of mobile continue to commercial use? At the stage, whether it can be divided into good frequency bands, FDD will make a good coverage before 5G to make up for the short board, which has certain influence on the competitiveness of mobile. "Fu Liang said.

At present, the specific 5G plans and inputs of the three major operators have not been announced. According to a document inside China Mobile, mobile is still in 2018, the first version of the R15 5G standard, the complete 5G standard of R16 and the system development stage.

"Mobile is now mainly building 4G, 5G has not yet started." "It is too early to talk about 5G now, it is a matter of two years later",

"4G is enough now, the network speed is enough for daily use. 5G is now hype, there is no good application scenario. I am most concerned about improving the treatment of frontline employees." A manager of China Mobile Corporation Said to the Blue Whale TTM reporter.

China Mobile is rapidly abandoning 3G networks, and China Unicom is abandoning 2G networks. In the future, China Unicom may pass 3G and voice, while mobile and telecom will form an advantage through 4G VoLTE or 2G networks, which is the difference between the three major operators when 5G arrives.

China's 3G license is 5-6 years later than the international. The 4G license is 3 years late. Before the 5G license was issued, it was impossible for the three major operators to carry out large-scale networking. "How to divide the frequency band, 5G licenses will be issued in early 2019 at the beginning of 2020. The gap in this year will have a greater impact on the competition between operators." Fu Liang said.

Although Unicom and Telecom have certain advantages in the past technology maturity, "China Unicom and Telecom have not supported all the support in the past few years. After the arrival of 5G, China Unicom and Telecom will not be able to catch up with mobile. 5G to the three major operators The change in the pattern is not even as big as the 3G era.” An employee of a mobile Shandong branch told reporters.

Does not exist big but does not fall

Alcatel’s chairman, Tachich Sherek, once said: “The competition in the communications industry is too cruel, you can’t predict what will happen tomorrow, what will happen next month.” Enterprises are fast and lightning-fast, not big but not big. Mythological story.

From 2006, 10 of the communications equipment market, Nokia, Motorola, Siemens, Ericsson, Alcatel, Lucent, ZTE, Huawei, Dragon, Datang. By 20 in 2018, Nokia, Ericsson, ZTE, and Huawei. During this period, the communication equipment market was changing and the competition was cruel.

Domestic "Great China", Julong, Datang, Zhongxing, and Huawei are now only two of ZTE and Huawei. According to the 2017 financial report released by Datang Telecom on April 26, 2018, the operating income was 4.348 billion, down 39.86% year-on-year. After experiencing huge losses in 2016 and 2017, Datang is on the verge of delisting risks.

In 2014, China Mobile fully turned to 4G construction. Datang Telecom's participation and leading TD-SCDMA standard network began to withdraw from the network nationwide. As of 2017, except for a few remote areas such as Xinjiang, TD-SCDMA was basically retired. In recent years, Datang's failure to transform in the terminal consumer market, chip design and manufacturing has cast a shadow and uncertainty on its prospects.

Ericsson, the world's number one supplier of communications equipment, experienced a net profit of 2017 from 1.9 billion kronor in 2016 to a net loss of 35.1 billion kronor (Swedish currency unit) in 2017, and the global layoffs of 10,000 employees.

Ericsson’s first-quarter earnings report for 2018 showed that operating costs, including layoffs last year, were operating at 43.4 billion kronor, down 9% year-on-year. The loss narrowed from 113 billion kronor last year to 300 million kronor, and the cash flow generated by operating activities was 1.6 billion kronor. The gross profit margin was higher than the previous quarter. North American 4G LTE investment in the largest business area showed positive growth momentum.

"Now, Ericsson and Nokia will still have a large share in the US market. Huawei and ZTE have great advantages in China. There are many countries in the European market, and each country may have 3-5 operators. In the case of multiple operators, there will be variables in the choice of operators for equipment vendors. Nokia, Ericsson, ZTE, and Huawei will all have opportunities. In the past, Huawei’s share in the European market was very low, and now its share is relatively high.” Fu Liang told reporters .

The 5G standard is different from the 2G, 3G, and 4G standards and is the turning point of the industry. Therefore, not only traditional equipment manufacturers are testing and testing 5G, but non-traditional equipment manufacturers such as Samsung and Intel have also joined the battle. This year, Samsung has cooperated with US operator Verizon on a series of 5G cooperation, and Samsung has also participated in a series of 5G technology research and development tests such as the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.

"Samsung is the world's fifth largest equipment supplier, accounting for about 3% of the world's share. Samsung hopes to build system equipment based on the original mobile phone business, and strengthen its position in this field. The vision of expanding its share is clear and clear." Communications expert Xiang Ligang explained to reporters the logic of Samsung and Intel's entry into 5G.

"Now there is no absolute IT industry, all communication and IT are converged. The annual shipment of computers worldwide is 200 million units, and the shipment of mobile phones is 2 billion units. The price of computers is comparable to that of mobile phones. Although Intel produced mobile phone chips in 2001 and 2010, Intel still needs to make a difference in the field of communications."

Intel has no one in the field of computer chips. Many communication base stations need to use Intel's chips and technologies, and they are also rich in 5G cloud computing. Intel needs to develop and expand in new areas from storage to CPU to reach the critical point of the industry. "5G is a powerful system for the integration of communications and IT industries around the world. Strong companies around the world will not give up this opportunity." Xiang Ligang said.

Of course, despite the support of the US government and operators behind Intel and Samsung, there will be variables in the communication market if they will withdraw or stay in the communication market for a long time. How much market share Intel and Samsung can take can not be accurately estimated. The competition will be destructive.

From the 3G, 4G to 5G process, no operator or equipment supplier has been exclusive, forming a unique industry structure. All along, it is a multi-vendor competition.

In the field of equipment vendors, there has never been a complete control of the IT industry like the Wintel Alliance.

On May 12, two years ago, Lenovo’s vote at 86 and 87 meetings of 3GPP became controversial again. In the context of globalization and cooperation, the storm is worthy of consideration for the coordinated development of the entire platform.

Industry observer Xu Yong believes that the unification of the 5G standard requires a joint effort. Under the background of a global chess game, it is impossible for any country to “crush” opponents and form “one big one” in any country.

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