Multinational LED Lighting CEO's Forecast and Strategy for China

Under the current exceptionally complex global economic situation, the huge potential of the Chinese lighting market clearly makes these multinational companies more optimistic, and how will they actually see and grasp the direction and pace of this industrial revolution? How will it adjust the deployment strategy in the Chinese market?

“We predict that LED lighting will account for 50% of the entire lighting market in 2015. To achieve this, there should be two prerequisites: one is efficiency; the other is cost.” In addition to that bulb, we need to pay attention to the entire lighting. How will the system seamlessly integrate into our lives?” from the numerous international CEOs from Nichia, Philips, Cree, GE, Veeco, Acetron and Epistar to the future of semiconductor lighting as a technological revolution and industrial revolution. Development trends exchanged views.

“There is no problem in the future growth of the Chinese market. We have to consider how to manage this growth.” “We can see that everyone is now focusing on China. For us, one of the challenges for the future is how to seize China. Market growth opportunities and how to prepare for such a fast-growing market, "Under the current exceptionally complex global economic situation, the huge potential of China's lighting market has clearly made these multinational companies more optimistic, or have taken it as a way out of the domestic economic crisis. A major breakthrough, and how will they actually see and grasp the direction and pace of this industrial revolution? How will it adjust the deployment strategy in the Chinese market? These topics seem to be very compelling. At the same time, for domestic companies, while growing rapidly, they are exploring new ideas and models for global industrial development and integrating themselves into international competition as soon as possible with a global perspective and a more open mind. Cooperation is the trend of the times. It is particularly critical to make more rational insights and judgments on the overall trend under the big pattern. Perhaps we can learn more from the attitudes and opinions expressed by international CEOs.

George Craford, Solid-State Lighting Consultant and former Chief Technology Officer, Philips Lumileds Lighting Company

The decisive significance of cost reduction means that China is a relatively good market and an ever-expanding market. We feel that China is a good market opportunity. Although there will be competition in this market, competition can be seen everywhere. The United States, Japan, South Korea and China have competition everywhere, so in the future I think we will be brave enough to participate in this competition.

First look at the LED lighting market, we estimate that the LED compound annual growth rate of 2010-2015 will reach 70%. To achieve this, there are two prerequisites: one is efficiency; the other is cost. These two facts are closely related. In particular, the cost reduction of LED should be the key to a key. The cost must be lowered quickly. We must reduce the cost by 10 times after 10 years. Looking at the data of the US Department of Energy, we can see that in 2020, the performance of LED will reach 200lm/W, while the cost will be reduced by 10 times.

Now we mainly use large chips, larger chips can achieve higher efficiency, and if we can solve the problem of high current in the future we can get smaller chips; another problem is about manufacturing, if we can achieve 6-inch lining The bottom-end technology can achieve higher efficiency. Such an approach can reduce the cost. However, the production capacity of our entire production is still relatively large, and it will create a problem of excess capacity. This seems to reduce the price of the product. But in fact the price was dragged down! Although there is a problem of overcapacity, we must survive this difficult period.

To sum up, our customers need higher system efficiency, hope a high return on investment, reduce the cost of lumens/dollars, and improve the quality of light.

Gerald E Duffy, Vice President of GE Lighting Solution Technology

The major trend of reducing costs This year's trend is that the development of the upstream chip industry is not very optimistic. We have already predicted many years ago that the LED chips will undergo fierce competition. This is why we did not have a choice at that time. Entering the LED chip in this area is a very important reason.

The price of chips is falling very fast, but this is a very good thing for GE. GE has a very good relationship with global LED chip merchants. We can choose the best chips at the best price, so we The product is very competitive in cost.

Currently, low cost and high light efficiency are the most important development trends. To ensure that LED is widely accepted by consumers as soon as possible, the price is definitely a very critical factor. If the price is lower than 10 US dollars, I think there will be many consumers willing to pay. Buy LED products.

It is worth noting that in addition to that bulb, we need to focus on how the entire lighting system will seamlessly integrate into our lives. This is the most important thing. In the near future, we will also see more and more. The more intelligent controls come up. In addition, we predict that there will be great demand for high-end lighting products in the future of commercial lighting. GE will continue to increase research and development in high-end lighting. Indoor lighting is our focus of research and development.

We all know that Philips not only has a lot of investment in LED applications such as LED chips and packaging, but GE's focus is only on the use of LED light source lamps. With regard to GE's strategic considerations in China, we all know that GE is a pluralist. In the company, lighting is only one part of the business, but GE attaches great importance to the Chinese market. We have R&D centers in Shanghai and Xi’an. In the next few years we will continue to expand the ranks of R&D personnel. Not only that, GE’s presence in the Chinese market The emphasis is also placed on placing very senior managers in China.

Nichia Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. executive vice president and chief operating officer Tasaki Denka in the fierce competition to win the way The future of the LED market should be said to be able to do more and more, especially the LED lighting market. LED will reach a market scale of US$10 billion in 2011 and will reach a scale of US$20 billion by 2020.

We can see that everyone is now focusing on China. Nichia now earns 90% of its revenue from Asia. We also attach great importance to the Chinese market. I think China has many opportunities. For us, an important challenge is how to Grasping the growth opportunities in the Chinese market, I think we as suppliers must be prepared to prepare for such a fast-growing market. For example, the Nichia Group will invest in establishing factories and R&D centers in China to provide customers with faster Service.

Looking at the LED lighting market, the LED lighting market may account for 50% of the total lighting market by 2015, and LED users will become larger and larger.

In a difficult environment like this, which is not very booming, what should companies do? I think it is very important to pay more attention to management. Without good management, it is hard to say that we will have a future. So how do we win in such a complex environment? I have several suggestions for everyone to consider: First, to be good at management, to be good at adjustments, to have courage and patience; second, to focus on the LED business. Third, we must continue to invest in equipment and research and development; in addition, we must continue to provide better quality and lower cost products, but also pay attention to the professional and technical personnel reserve.

Mike Watson, Senior Director, Cree LED Components Market and Product Applications

Business model is the key to success At present, everyone seems to be very focused on improving LED performance and reducing costs, but I would say that the solid-state lighting industry, like other industries, will have a technological breakthrough, but things are often the final victory. Not only are open runners in technology, but we also need to change our business model, and we must focus on the differentiation of business models.

Focusing more on business models than on light efficiency, this is the key to our success. We need to tell our end users the value. Then we have an application model. With applications that will drive the development of technology, it will drive our competition and competition will bring costs down. Then we have to adopt this model. , otherwise it is impossible to achieve 10 times cost reduction.

In fact, I think what our customers really need is not a new packaged device. They don't want modules or chips on the board. What they want is a real value. It's a lighting solution.

Paul Hyland, president and CEO of Aisonic, Germany

The future growth of the Chinese market is no problem. What we have to consider is how to manage this growth. In the past 4 to 5 years, China's LED industry has developed rapidly. We have seen many joint ventures and multinational companies coming to China. They have seen China. The great potential of the market.

Now, we have seen that general lighting has a great demand for LEDs. This is a good opportunity. China exports 70% of the world's lighting products, and China is also the largest consumer market. Now the Chinese government has huge profits for this industry. With the support of the government, the government has provided many favorable policies. This can be used by Chinese companies. Yesterday we heard that many companies are talking about how to rapidly improve the efficacy of LEDs. They are talking about how many lumens a dollar is and LED systems need to reduce costs. This is also a concern for our equipment manufacturers. At present, the development of the entire semiconductor lighting industry is shifting to a new stage, that is, how to further strengthen our professionalism, how to reduce costs and improve the quality of light. This is all we need to work harder. At the same time, we also hope that in the global Within the scope to find a variety of cutting-edge cooperation.

I like very much what a speaker said in this forum: “We have now entered an era of innovation.” Our winter has arrived, but in the winter we must also be prepared to welcome the spring.

Mr. Zhongjie Zhong, Marketing Director, Asia Pacific, OSRAM Opto Semiconductors Asia Ltd. LED Lighting Design Needs Innovation From the perspective of OSRAM, we expect that more than 65% of products in the lighting market before 2015 will be solid-state lighting. This is one of the things I want to deliver today. Information, perhaps from this point of view, we are still more "radical".

And what I want to mention below is the quality of light. Of course, light efficiency is very important, it will affect the cost and performance of the entire LED lighting products, but I want to say is that it is not all we need to be concerned about, there are other areas that also need our consideration. For example, light quality, color rendering index, color consistency, color uniformity, etc., of course, also consider how to make different LEDs suitable for different applications, which is related to the mutual compromise of color rendering index and light efficiency. Because the two sometimes have contradictions. So we think that before we can make a lighting solution, we must first clearly know where we are going to use it. We must also talk about the further improvement of the quality of light and its performance. We have a smart light and control over the colors. Many cases have been analyzed in these aspects. If we can do better light efficiency, and more intelligent light efficiency management, color control, we will save a large part of energy.

One more thing I would like to say is that design is very important. Today we see a lot of LED lighting, most of which are LED bulbs, but it still looks a bit like a traditional bulb, then our current LED What is the difference between a lamp and an incandescent lamp in the end that can bring benefits to consumers? I think this requires our continuous innovation. We can imagine what kind of future lighting will be completely transparent glass? ? Or it couldn't be what we can imagine now, or the shape of a mirror. It's just a guess.

Here I want to emphasize that we often talk about light efficiency and cost. Of course, these are also important, but we know that lighting is a part of our lives. We must consider how to use LED technology to make lighting more unique. It is very important to become different from traditional lighting.

Veeco Business Development Vice President Sudhakar Raman

LED lighting, which has just begun, I want to tell everyone that the LED market is still in a very early development cycle.

In the past ten years, we have seen very large progress in the equipment market, but in recent years, we have found that the development of the industry has been affected by some, because now the actual demand for LED backlighting, as well as the lighting market may not be like As we imagined, the challenge is still there.

We believe that the demand for global LED in 2015 may exceed 22 billion U.S. dollars, and the compound growth rate will reach 33%. According to our forecast, the export volume of LED TV backlight will increase by 13%. In 2011, the market penetration of LED backlight will reach 43%. %, it will reach 78% by 2013.

At present, it is very important that the improvement of light efficiency and the reduction of costs must match. In this regard, we have done a lot of research and attempts on how to reduce costs, and we have made breakthroughs, but we must know that in LED lighting Now, it is only the beginning. LED lighting is used in many occasions, such as outdoor, industrial lighting, commercial lighting, indoor lighting, etc. The share of industrial lighting accounts for about 15%, commercial lighting accounts for about 22%, indoor accounts for about 28%, and others. It is outdoor lighting, which is a forecast for the market development in 2015.

In the future, we will increase our R&D investment, reduce costs and improve performance. We now have quite a lot of business from Asia. The Chinese government is very concerned about energy and energy conservation. I think this is a very good momentum. In particular, the Chinese government recently stated that it will phase out incandescent lamps. This is good news and will accelerate the development of the LED market.

Michael Heuken, Vice President of R&D, Aisyn AG, Germany

In the next two or three years, MOCVD production will increase. At present, AIXGRON’s global market share in various regions, Europe accounts for about 5%, North America 5%, and Asia basically accounts for 90%. Of these 90%, China is currently The highest; followed by Taiwan and South Korea. Currently we have a very large investment in China. We have more than 60 employees in China, most of whom are our engineers. At the same time, we have a training center in China.

MOCVD is a key support for the development of the LED industry. It will drive the growth of the solid-state lighting market. We know that solid-state lighting is the trend of the entire market in the world. In the future, the solid-state lighting will grow in 2013 or 2014 and will require more MOCVD. At present, the supply of two MOCVD suppliers in the world should be at 1,000 units, and MOCVD production will increase in the next two to three years.

From the development trend, many companies are now trying to carry out the research and development of large-size substrates such as 6-inch and 8-inch. MOCVD will definitely drive down the cost, which is very good for the cost reduction of the final product. Focusing on R&D in this area has invested a lot of energy and capital. Currently, the mainstream market is still 4 inches and 6 inches. However, we are already doing 8-inch substrate R&D. We will combine R&D direction with expected technical requirements. In the future, we must be able to meet the market's growth needs.

Jingyuan Optoelectronics Co., Ltd. specially assisted Liao Benyu to meet the technical challenge of solid-state lighting. From 2012 to 2015, semiconductor lighting development will usher in a relatively mature development stage. Now, traditional lighting companies and semiconductor lighting companies are different in their mentality. The experience and experience that traditional companies provide to customers are all traditional lighting, and they cannot meet the requirements of current customers. Semiconductor lighting Some of the industry's practitioners know more about what new customers are now demanding, but their products must have a longer life cycle, higher lumens per watt, and more energy-saving advantages. However, they often overlook the harsh requirements of customers on light quality, such as light uniformity, low color temperature requirements and so on.

A lot of people want to join our big family and do the final solution. We also want to reduce costs by doing vertical integration. But the industry is not yet fully mature. Some of the products used today are seen It is not the final, optimal design. Because if they reach a stage of maturity, they will be separated again into a highly cooperative mode of division of labor. Few mature industries will have a highly vertically integrated business model.

Jingyuan Optoelectronics still values ​​our chips very much. Our goals are very challenging, such as the lumens per watt, the lumens per dollar, etc. So we have a lot to do. We just did a press conference and use flip chip. The technology of our chip driver at a current of 1 amp, the voltage can still be controlled to an ideal degree, this technology is conducive to us to increase the lumens per watt, and we are now using mostly a chip, but We also have developed a new high-voltage chip that uses a semiconductor process to connect multiple chips in series to form an extremely high voltage. We have found that using this kind of chip can reduce our VF during the design process. Even if this current reaches a relatively high intensity, this voltage can be controlled to a very good level. Many customers tell us that we want to have a high voltage chip, Utilizing this kind of chip can help them to reduce the cost of their power manager to a great extent, so the customer used a lot of small chips to combine together before, in order to meet the demand under the high voltage situation, not only the process complexity affects the yield but also increased a lot not A good resistive load is in its circuit. But now that we have this new approach, we have also discovered that the cost of this flip-chip technology is lower than the cost of arranging small chips together. This is why we will continue to focus on our research. Study this flip chip technology to improve our lumens per watt and reduce the problem of degradation of light efficiency. If we do this, we can get more chips on the same substrate. This is our scientific research on the chip. Another application is some research.

Red phosphors have high cost and greatly reduce the light output. We encourage everyone to use red chips instead of red phosphors, so that you can get better temperature and color effects, then lumens per watt can also be improved. We do this in many projects. We feel that using this method will further shorten the distance between warm white and cool white light, and it has also been adopted by international manufacturers in their LED lamps.