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With the decline of manufacturing costs and the breakthrough of technical bottlenecks such as luminous efficiency and light decay, the advantages of LED (semiconductor light source) are becoming more and more obvious, and it is not far from replacing the traditional light source. However, due to technical constraints, the upstream and downstream aspects of the LED industry vary greatly. The technical difficulty of upstream products is extremely high, while the barriers to downstream packaging and application are very low. Without core technologies, Chinese companies can only gather at the end of the industry. . Despite its low cost advantage, China has rapidly become a global LED packaging base, but its competitive position is fragile. In the fourth quarter of 2008, the price of LED products plummeted, and the order volume decreased by nearly half. Many enterprises in the industrial clusters such as the Pearl River Delta were out of the market, and the strong alliance of leading enterprises and the huge intervention of traditional lighting giants will make the survival of SMEs. More difficult, building core strengths is far from an easy task. The analysis shows that the upstream and downstream LEDs have different development trends, and the investment strategies should be different for different industry characteristics.
Awkward sunrise industry
The discussion on the future of LEDs is a commonplace. Due to its long life, low energy consumption, fast response to volume, low temperature resistance, low temperature and low pollution, its application fields are extremely broad. According to preliminary calculations, the annual energy saved by LED lighting in China is equivalent to the annual power generation of the Three Gorges Power Station. At the same time, it can reduce the emissions of 80 million tons of CO2, 650,000 tons of SO2 and 320,000 tons of NO2. It is called the revolution in the history of human lighting. Not too much.
The development of semiconductor lighting is very rapid. Statistics show that since the birth of the 1960s, every ten years, LED costs have dropped tenfold and luminous efficiency has increased tenfold. And technical progress has always exceeded market expectations. In 2006, Japan's Nichia achieved a luminous efficiency of 150 Lm/W, six years earlier than the goal set by the Optoelectronic Industry Development Association (OIDA). The single-lamp, which was commercialized in the market a few years ago in 2010, has already entered commercial use in 2006 and is now quite popular.
China's LED industry started in the 1980s and has experienced several stages such as importing chip packaging, importing epitaxial wafer packaging, and self-made materials and devices. After entering the 21st century, environmental protection and energy conservation have become hot spots in the market, and the LED industry has begun to heat up. The 2008 Beijing Olympic Games gave LED another shot of stimulant. The dream long scroll at the opening ceremony was displayed on more than 4,500 square meters, the world's largest single-color full-color LED display, when arranged by 45,000 LEDs. When the dream five rings rose, the enthusiasm of the Chinese people for LED reached a new high.
Regrettably, in less than a year, China's LED industry has entered a difficult situation. Only two months after the Olympics, corporate orders plummeted and prices plummeted. The reality is very different from the imagination.
The most developed industries in the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta region are the most severely affected. Among the dozens of companies we surveyed, the average price of products in the fourth quarter fell by more than 20%, orders fell by half, and 1/10 of companies were forced to stop production. Despite the strong support from local governments, such as Guangdong plans to build a 100,000-mile project, build a demonstration project of about 10,000 km of street lights of about 1,500 km, of which Dongguan plans to add 22,100 LED street lights (in principle, suppliers are limited to local companies), but it is still difficult. Deteriorating the potential.
LED is undoubtedly a huge sunrise industry, but the huge contrast of reality makes the excitement of the practitioners unprepared, and the original optimistic investment has become a bitter fruit.
Many people blame the problems in the LED industry on the economic recession brought about by the financial crisis. They believe that the global economic recession has caused the overall demand to shrink, which has reduced the market size and filial orders. Others believe that the LED standards of various countries have successively launched an impact on Chinese companies accustomed to non-standard production, especially downstream enterprises, and the price of LED products is too high. The price of high-power LEDs is almost ten times that of energy-saving lamps of the same power. .
For the price collapse, some people think that because Japan's Nichia and other industry leaders have lowered the price of white light chips, causing everyone to follow suit, coupled with Taiwan's first-tier manufacturers in the market optimistic expectations in 2007 and blind expansion, and finally capacity excess. Coupled with the end of the year, manufacturers have sold inventory to speed up the return of funds.
These external influences undoubtedly exist, but they are only representations. In fact, the fundamental factor that constrains the development of LEDs is technology, and the imbalanced industrial structure due to technical constraints. And China’s unique blind decision-making has also caused most companies to locate downstream and low-end industries that are very unfavorable.
Rapid expansion of downstream production capacity leads to imbalance between supply and demand
Huge market demand is extremely attractive, but this does not mean that companies will have a comfortable development space. Supply, or competition, together with demand determines the profitability of the company, and the fierce competition is precisely the dilemma that Chinese companies squeezed at the end of the industry can't get rid of.
The development history of China's LED industry is very similar to that of the home appliance industry. The huge market has aroused the investment enthusiasm of the market, which can be described as fanaticism, while the downstream links are easy to expand due to low barriers to entry. This short, flat and fast business model is always more favored by Chinese grassroots entrepreneurs.
In the Pearl River Delta region, especially in the LED production and gathering areas of Shenzhen, Dongguan, etc., a few cheap manual bonding machines (referring to the wire bonding machine, derived from English BondingMachine), equipped with microscopes, ovens and other equipment, hired a few people Small workshops that start to be packaged can be seen everywhere, and some have entered the application field and even some new development areas. These small workshops have survived by selling low-priced products to small-scale lighting factories in the surrounding ancient towns and higher places. Once the market changes, these small workshops are also the most easily squeezed out.
Public opinion and policy have also contributed to this blindness. In recent years, the local government has developed a high interest in the LED industry. Seven LED industrial bases and four regional industrial clusters have been established in Shenzhen, Shanghai, Xiamen, Dalian and Nanchang. However, the characteristics of these industrial clusters are not prominent and the models are very similar.
The rapid influx of new enterprises has led to the rapid expansion of downstream production capacity, exceeding the growth of market demand, leading to imbalance between supply and demand, and today's economic depression has led to further decline in demand, exacerbating this imbalance. Whether it is fierce competition or technological innovation, companies can be forced to a dead end, not to mention the sudden changes in market demand.
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