[Text|High-tech LED reporter Lu Qiujia] "The overall profitability of the industry is not optimistic. The upper, middle and lower reaches are facing their own problems. The transformation is first of all to be ideologically transformed." 2014 Gaogong LED Annual Meeting in December On the 12th, as scheduled, at the theme conference of "The Great Strategy of the Industry", which was named by Zhongweiguang Electronics, Dr. Zhang Xiaofei, Chairman of Gaogong LED, used this sentence as the opening remark.

According to the statistics of the High-tech LED Industry Research Institute (GLII), the total size of China's LED industry will reach 344.5 billion yuan in 2014, an increase of 30.57%. The number of LED industry chain companies exceeds 20,000. The number of companies in 2014 was the same as in 2013. Industry gold development time is only 2017.

Overall improvement in upstream operations <br> <br> Xiaofei is expected in 2015, most of the LED chips, packaging, application listed companies will be more than 10 million. In 2014, the total number of China's LED chip companies was 51. In 2014, the overall operating surface improved, and there was no bankruptcy, but about 10 companies have already had strong exit requirements.

GLII expects that the total size of China's LED chips will reach 12 billion yuan in 2014, including 10 billion yuan for local enterprises, and more than 95% of 4-inch substrates for Taiwanese companies with 2 billion substrates of sapphire patterned substrates will increase by more than 20%. After rising, the domestic substrate accounted for more than 70%.

In terms of capacity utilization, the overall operating rate of MOCVD is 80%, and the total capacity utilization rate is 60%. Enterprises can be more cautious in expansion, but some enterprises have insufficient capacity.

Zhang Xiaofei said that the technology gap between Chinese leading companies and international enterprises is within one year, and technological competition is the most critical factor in the industry. Throughout the upstream market, the trend of industrial M&A elimination is obvious. Most enterprises have difficulty refinancing, and the industrial structure is gradually formed. Sanan and Huacan will become the first echelon. The proportion of global competitiveness and direct exports will rise, and both production capacity and output value will exceed. Taiwan and Japan.

In the middle of this year, the pressure on the expansion of the large and medium-sized packaging enterprises accounted for more than 60%, and the external attention of the industry dropped significantly compared with the previous two years. The market performance is more competitive pressure.

It takes about one year for the chip-level flip-chip package to enter the market. It mainly replaces high-power devices. The packaging industry technology is still unshaped. The market share of flip-chip packaging will not exceed that of SMD packages. The prospect of COB packaging is still not clear.

"The technical route of Chinese enterprises has not yet been finalized, chip-level flip-chip devices have begun mass production, and the decline in product prices has slowed down." Zhang Xiaofei said.

He predicted that the status of "global LED packaging device production base" will further increase, international companies will transfer more orders to domestic enterprises, LED packaging industry will officially enter the competition elimination period, the scale of over one billion enterprises will exceed 10, and the scale of 1 billion will Become the symbol of the first echelon company.

Downstream "big one Evergrande"

At present, LED applications in various fields have begun to mature, and the expansion of listed companies has begun to be put into production. The average growth rate is much higher than that of peers. Listed companies and mergers and acquisitions have begun to develop on a large scale and become the leading force of integration.

“Downstream companies will acquire some lighting companies with channel advantages.” Zhang Xiaofei said.

In terms of channel innovation, it is no exaggeration to say that the e-commerce channel will become one of the main terminal sales channels, the proportion of retail channels will rise, but the importance is lower than the traditional lighting era; the proportion of engineering channels will drop rapidly, O2O channel just Start to explore, big companies to try.

In terms of technology, the downstream enterprises have no obvious technical gap with international companies, but there are still gaps in appearance and system design, and intellectual property rights and patent issues are prominent.

Dr. Zhang Xiaofei predicted that the elimination rate of downstream industries will accelerate, and traditional lighting enterprises still dominate the domestic sales. The transformation speed exceeds expectations, and the proportion of LEDs will increase from 40% in 2014 to 60%. LED indoor lighting companies are on the verge of listing.

The transformation and upgrading of enterprises is imminent. In the independent innovation and mergers and acquisitions, it has become the most obvious two roads facing the enterprise. "M&A, going from domestic to foreign, this is a breakthrough in our industry, our time is actually not much." Zhang Xiaofei pointed out the last shot.

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