The problem facing the automotive industry is that no energy has been found that can completely replace oil. The battery and fuel cell technologies are not yet mature, and will maintain the coexistence of multiple energy sources for a long time. The “Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan” issued by the State Council in July 2012 proposed: Actively carry out research and development and application of vehicle alternative fuel manufacturing technology, and encourage natural gas, biofuel and other resource-rich regions to develop alternative fuel vehicles. Exploring other alternative fuel vehicle technology application channels to promote the development of new energy vehicles not only has important strategic significance, but also has very urgent practical significance.

Recently, Reuters published an article titled "The Future of Electric Vehicles Is Slim", saying: "Electric vehicles that have been developed for more than 100 years have experienced several short-term recovery, but they have not yet reached the peak period, maybe they will always do it. Not at all. "

The article also believes that the attitude of Carlos Ghosn, CEO of Nissan Renault Alliance, "the most open supporter of electric vehicles in the automotive industry" has also changed. In fact, Ghosn has always believed that the time to promote pure electric vehicles is not mature. At the Shanghai Auto Show in April 2011, Ghosn said, "Even according to the current development situation, electric vehicles will not become part of the market."

Once-promising plug-in hybrid vehicles such as Volanda and Tingfeng sold last year, but sales were also okay, but they were far away from large-scale production, especially because the battery has repeatedly failed, which has a great impact on consumer confidence. . Lithium-ion battery safety issues even forced the Dreamliner 787 to ground. Now, even if the safety problem is solved, there are still problems such as low energy density and long charging time, which are not easy to solve.

Faced with safety and environmental protection issues, how can new energy vehicles survive?

A 2010 report by the Chinese Academy of Engineering pointed out that even in the case of low demand, China ’s oil demand will reach 644 million tons by 2030. If it is not controlled, China ’s foreign dependence on oil will likely exceed 70 by 2030. %. The report believes that the upper limit of oil dependence should not exceed 60%. In order to achieve this goal, several constraints are required by 2030: the number of fuel vehicles is 190 million to 200 million; the fuel economy is increased by 20%; the mileage of a single vehicle is controlled at 17,000 to 18,000 kilometers per year for passenger vehicles, Commercial vehicles are 40,000-50,000 km / year.

According to current trends, even if the annual production and sales volume of automobiles in China remains unchanged at 20 million units, the car ownership may reach 200 million units by 2020, and if the state controls oil imports to not exceed 60% of demand, 200 million units The car also has no fuel guarantee. Therefore, diversification of automotive energy has become an urgent issue.

The new energy vehicles defined in China include only plug-in hybrid vehicles, pure electric vehicles (including solar vehicles), fuel cell electric vehicles, and hydrogen engine vehicles. Japan ’s “new generation of vehicles”, including electric vehicles (including fuel cell vehicles), plug-in hybrid vehicles, clean diesel vehicles, hybrid vehicles, and natural gas vehicles, are exempted from motor vehicle tax and motor vehicle purchase tax on these vehicles.

The shale gas revolution in the United States has made the United States no longer dependent on Middle East oil. China's natural gas reserves are only ranked in the top ten in the world, but according to the relevant departments, China's unconventional natural gas (fuel gas other than natural gas, including coal bed methane, shale gas, combustible ice, biogas, etc.) resources is about 5.01 times the amount. Natural gas is also a relatively clean energy source, which helps alleviate severe smog pollution.

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